Tuesday, May 9: The system that had been brewing in the Bay of Bengal since last week finally began to take shape on Monday, upon the formation of a low-pressure area in the southeastern parts of the sea. Now, further intensification and movement are on the cards for the rest of this week.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the aforementioned low over southeast BoB and adjoining South Andaman Sea became a well-marked low-pressure area around 5:30 a.m. today.
From here on, it is expected to intensify into a depression over the same region by today evening, and subsequently into a cyclonic storm over southeast and adjoining east-central BoB and the Andaman Sea by tomorrow (Wednesday, May 10).
A system is categorised as a cyclonic storm when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds fall between 63-88 kmph. And once this system becomes a cyclonic storm, it will be called Cyclone Mocha, after a famous Yemeni port city with the same name.
Thereafter, The Weather Channel’s met team has indicated that the cyclone will continue to strengthen further, possibly intensifying into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) by Friday, May 12! The third highest category used by the IMD to classify tropical cyclones, a VSCS has 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds between 119-165 kmph.
As for its movement, the system is expected to track north-northwestwards until Thursday, then gradually recurve north-northeastwards, and eventually make landfall between Bangladesh and Myanmar around Sunday, May 14. However, owing to the wide variation in its path and strength among forecasting models, there is still some degree of uncertainty regarding the final landfall location.
With that said, the ECMWF model’s track forecast has shifted more easterly compared to its previous forecasts, which means the cyclone’s impact on Odisha may now be less severe than previously predicted.
Nevertheless, this growing system will continue to dump very heavy (115.5 mm-204 mm) to extremely heavy rains (204 mm) and gusty winds (≧90 kmph) across Andaman-Nicobar Islands on Wednesday and Thursday (May 10-11). Therefore, they have been placed on an orange alert, which urges the residents to ‘be prepared’ for rough weather.
The system’s presence will also trigger rough sea conditions across southeast and central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, and therefore, all the regional fishing, shipping, tourism and other offshore activities have all been suspended for the week.
For more information and detailed coverage of Cyclone Mocha's intensification, movement, and impacts, stay tuned to The Weather Channel India.
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