Did Israel bomb Gaza hospital? Visuals suggest otherwise

As Israel and Gaza officials continue to blame each other for the explosion at the Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, initial visual evidence does not show signs of aerial bombing by Israel.

The city hospital was reportedly packed with patients, wounded and health professionals on Tuesday. Gaza officials blamed an Israeli airstrike that reportedly killed around 500 people, while the Israeli military blamed the incident on a rocket misfired by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants.

The incident is seen as the deadliest single-day incident of the 10-day-old war that began after the October 7 massacre orchestrated by Hamas. The hospital, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO) was one of 20 targets in the north of the Gaza Strip facing evacuation orders from the Israeli military.

THE GROUND ZERO

Photos and videos posted online were analysed by India Today’s OSINT team to help understand possible scenarios that could have unfolded. There appear to be more visual clues suggesting that the massacre was likely an accident/rocket failure than a targeted bombing from the skies.

By comparing the pictures of the aftermath of the missile strike at the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital, it becomes evident that the vicinity of the parking lot and surrounding areas were the closest to the explosion.

Social media videos show extensive damage to the cars parked in the open space, and some damage to the walls of the hospital but don’t show the impact consistent with the Israeli air strikes since October 7.

Footage from the live stream by Al Jazeera and surveillance camera footage from Netiv HaAsara released by IDF independently verify the geolocation of the incident.

The live stream revealed three illuminated structures amidst the darkness in northern Gaza, that the India Today OSINT team identified as Wafaa Medical Rehab, Abu Khadra Mosque, and a non-governmental office in Gaza based on visual cues.

In the second video shared by Al Jazeera, which provided a close-up view of the rocket strike site, the architectural features of the hospital building perfectly matched the images of Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital available on Google.

In order to pinpoint the precise blast location, we also identified the neighbouring building to the hospital and a prominent tree within the vicinity.

Going by the surveillance camera footage captured from Netiv HaAsara which shows a large barrage of rockets being launched from a direction opposite to the POV which is likely emerging from northern Gaza.

This salvo was followed by a significant explosion occurring somewhere between the two locations, presumably as a result of a misfire.

Further, to corroborate our findings, we revisited the appearance of previous sites that had been subjected to Israeli rocket strikes in Gaza. The high-resolution satellite images captured by Maxar technologies a week before showed the Wanton tower in Gaza in ruins after a retaliatory aerial strike by Israel, leaving extensive damage to the building.

However, from the images and videos of the hospital surfacing online, there seem to be no visible signs of a large crater in the parking lot or any substantial damage to the buildings close by. These signs make the “Aerial Bombing” theory less plausible.

Israel Army’s Chief Spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, asserted that there were no air force, ground or naval attacks in the area at the time of the blast. Hamas, in response, attributed the strike to Israel.

They referenced Israel's prior directive to evacuate Al-Ahli Hospital and their previous bombings of the hospital complex as evidence that the hospital was intentionally targeted by Israel.

Hamas also argued that the scale of the explosion, the trajectory of the bomb's impact, and the extensive damage all collectively pointed to Israeli involvement.

Hundreds of Palestinians had took refuge in al-Ahli and other hospitals in Gaza City in the past few days, hoping they would be spared bombardment after Israel ordered all residents of the city and surrounding areas to evacuate to the southern Gaza Strip.

“Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you,” Joe Biden reportedly told Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit earlier today. He further added that there were “a lot of people out there” who weren't sure what caused the blast.

The catastrophe, at Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, came hours before President Biden boarded Air Force One for Israel, and it threatened to draw the United States further into a conflict that it sought to end. Also, it adds no geopolitical incentive for Israel which already has the west on its side.

However, at least 10 hospitals in Gaza have already come under attack since October 7, as per the data collected by the United Nations. “This is a massacre,” said MSF Doctors Without Borders, in a statement. “It is absolutely unacceptable. Hospitals are not a target. This bloodshed must stop. Enough is enough.” The siege has affected the ability of emergency responders to conduct even basic search-and-rescue operations.

The practice of using humanitarian sites as cover is not new for Hamas and PIJ. Earlier, geolocation of Hamas propaganda footage by India Today OSINT team revealed the existence of a Hamas armed training site only km away from a UN facility in Gaza. This proximity serves as a stark reminder of the potential risks associated with such practices being conducted in the vicinity of humanitarian aid camps and civilian shelter areas.

Earlier, an IDF spokesperson stressed the large number of misfired rockets fired from Gaza. “These rockets fell short of Israel and have caused Palestinian casualties. During this war, we have counted approximately 450 rockets that misfired and fell inside Gaza. Palestinian civilians pay the price of that” he added.

On the other hand, Israel claimed to have dropped 6,000 bombs weighing 4,000 tonnes on Gaza in the first six days of the war. The other side has fired a substantial number of rockets towards Israel too. In the event of war, rocket misfiring and bombs missing their targets are very common. Given the large volume of attacks both theories could still be plausible and only a detailed investigation would provide a conclusive verdict.