Demand and Supply: Dynamics of Pirkanmaa Job Market

My primary focus is immigrant (un)employment in Finland, and how to even out the unemployment rate of immigrants with that of Finnish nationals. However, we can’t talk about immigrant unemployment without looking at the general state of labour market in the country.

Hence this article. Based on official numbers.

I take the approach that you can’t solve any big challenges without splitting them into smaller issues. And thus I first concentrated on Pirkanmaa, the region I live in.

ELY-keskus provides data each month [1]. The number of unemployed jobseekers (overall, not excluding immigrants) is compared against the same month last year. The same applies to the number of open positions in that category.

Major changes in the global sense made me think, that this is not the best approach to analyse changes in the labour market. The situation was very different before COVID-19 came along, so comparing e.g. March 2019 numbers with March 2018, would not give you a clear understanding of the shift in labour market situation. Similarly, the invasion into Ukraine had a major impact on the increased number of unemployed residents, since Finland accepted thousands of refugees.

Therefore I decided to take a look at how the changes in labour market are reflected on a monthly basis, starting with January 2022.

Methodology

The first source of information is ammattibarometri: “the occupational barometer is an estimate of the employment offices (TE offices) for short-term outlook for key occupations and workforce availability.” [2] The occupational barometer identifies professions most in demand, as well as those that have a surplus of available workforce. This convenient tool is updated each quarter.

The most recent data available on ammattibarometri is from quarter II of 2022 [3]. Here are 5 professions listed among those most in demand in Pirkanmaa region. For clarity purposes, I provide both English and Finnish profession titles, and the profession code as listed in the official registry.

• 5322: Home-based Personal Care Workers / Kodinhoitajat (kotipalvelutoiminta)
• 5321: Health Care Assistants / Lähihoitajat
• 7223: Metal Working Machine Tool Setters and Operators / Koneenasettajat ja koneistajat
• 8211: Mechanical Machinery Assemblers / Konepaja- ja metallituotteiden kokoonpanijat
• 8212: Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers / Sähkö- ja elektroniikkalaitteiden kokoonpanijat

After identifying some of the top professions in demand, I moved to the second source of information, which is Statistics Finland (Tilatokeskus) – an independently acting government agency which produces reliable and impartial statistics on Finland's society [4].

Here is where those codes assigned to each profession come in handy. Statistics Finland collects data on the number of unemployed jobseekers, and the number of open positions in those professions at the end of each month.

Results

The charts presented here show the change in the number of unemployed jobseekers (blue), and open positions (red) in the same profession January through October 2022 in Pirkanmaa.

Important: unemployed jobseekers does not include professionals who are employed in part-time job, or have full-time employment contract but wish to change the job and thus are registered with TE offices. 

Official data about Home-based Personal Care Workers (5322) shows a high demand of professionals in this field, which is relatively steady throughout this year. It is safe to say, that there is a high demand for workers in these positions.

Metal working machine tool setters and operators (7223) had a surplus of unemployed jobseekers up until September. Starting from August there is a sharp increase in the number of open positions for these professionals. But there are still ~150 of them unemployed, and they are residing in Pirkanmaa. If all these people got the jobs that are offered, there would still be a higher need for such professionals, only it would be ~50, instead of >200 that we currently see.

Visual representation of data on mechanical machinery assemblers (8211) shows a steady number of >100 unemployed assemblers registered as jobseekers with TE office. The number of open positions show a tendency of going down. With certain fluctuation during this year, the number of positions went down by ~100, while jobseeker numbers remained around the same. 

Statistics on electrical and electronic equipment assemblers (8212) and health care assistants (5321) are most intriguing. Both graphs represent a relatively steady number of unemployed jobseekers with these professions. While the number of open positions start drastically going down around March, evening out how many positions there are to fill, and how many people are available.

Discussion

Ammattibarometri data is from the end of II quarter of 2022, which means that we can still see electrical and electronic equipment assemblers in top most in demand professions, even though the number of open positions for these professionals in the end of October was 26.

Despite that, the most intriguing questions are related to this profession, coupled with health care assistants. Both show a drastic increase of work available in February, and an even more drastic fall starting with March. The low fluctuation of the number of unemployed jobseekers raises several questions.

Were these open positions closed without anyone filling them?

Was there a successful implementation of bringing in people from other countries to fill these positions and satisfy the need for labour force?

What are the reasons for close to 500 health care assistants staying unemployed throughout the year, while this profession is sought after throughout the country? 

When defining the problem with workforce shortage, are we looking at the numbers the right way? And by right, I mean the way it provides us with the correct insights.

The need and availability of workforce matching up is a good thing, potentially this is a sign of a successful national programme to deal with the needs of society and economy. The national conversation is about talent attraction to keep up with the aging population, it is a long-term strategy.

In the meantime, the short-term strategy should be handled on regional and municipal level, matching this available workforce with the open positions. In the cases of health care assistants and electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, the needed workforce is already here in Pirkanmaa.

The conversation should turn to figuring out, how to help trained jobseekers meet the skillset requirements set out by employers, and how employers can make these positions more attractive. 

References

[1] Employment bulletin. https://www.temtyollisyyskatsaus.fi/graph/tkat/tkat.aspx?ely=04

[2] Occupational Barometer. https://www.ammattibarometri.fi/?kieli=en

[3] Occupational Barometer. ELY Centre for Pirkanmaa (2022 / II). https://www.ammattibarometri.fi/Toplista.asp?maakunta=pirkanmaa&vuosi=22ii&kieli=en

[4] Statistics Finland. https://stat.fi/index_en.html